Vietnam's spice exports hit new heights in April 2026 — black pepper shipments jumped 16.8% year-on-year to over 31,000 metric tons, while cassia cinnamon staged its strongest monthly rebound since 2024. But price pressure, a geopolitically disrupted Middle East, and a historic El Niño on the horizon mean buyers and sellers are navigating a very different landscape in H2 2026.
Price Settles at 142,000 VND — Buyers Jump Back In
Black Pepper
Vietnam Farm-Gate · Week 19, May 2026
After slipping from its January peak of 152,000 VND/kg, the Vietnam black pepper price held rock-steady at 142,000 VND/kg throughout the week of May 3–10. At this level, US and EU importers who had been waiting are now committing to spot orders and locking in 2027 delivery schedules.
VND/kg · Farm-gate price, Vietnam Central Highlands · Source: VPSA / MARESO Research
April export volumes hit 31,053 metric tons — up 16.8% vs April 2025 and 1.4% above March 2026. Revenue reached US$193.1M (black: US$164.2M, white: US$28.9M). Revenue dipped 3.1% MoM due to the lower price, but volume growth shows demand fundamentals remain strong.
Source: VPSA preliminary statistics
The US remained Vietnam's #1 pepper market at 7,272 tons in April (23.4% of total exports). The biggest surprise? China — surging 24.5% MoM in April, and a jaw-dropping +289.3% over four months. Chinese food-processing demand is back, buying at scale.
MT = metric tons · Source: VPSA / Customs General Department
Asia resurgence driven by China reopening demand and sustained Philippine growth · Source: VPSA
The Middle East is still in conflict, making deliveries impossible and resulting in no new demand from this market — yet it still represents ~15% of Vietnam's pepper export turnover.MARESO Market Intelligence — April 2026
The Middle East is the biggest drag on the market right now. Conflict has closed key shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing freight costs up 3–4× on some lanes and causing severe congestion at Jebel Ali, Bahrain, and Oman. Some Vietnamese exporters have paused new orders to the region entirely.
The Comeback Story: +62.4% in a Single Month
Cassia Cinnamon
Vietnam Export · April 2026
After a quiet March, cassia exploded back in April — +62.4% in volume and +50.1% in value to reach 12,491 tons and US$31.0 million. Over the full four months, Vietnam shipped 34,745 tons worth US$89.1 million — up 8.7% in volume and 4.9% in revenue YoY.
India is the engine here. It absorbed 4,673 tons in April alone — up 176.5% MoM — and 11,507 tons over four months, representing 33.1% of all Vietnam cassia exports. Bangladesh and the United States take spots 2 and 3. Meanwhile, Indonesia quietly emerged as a fast-growing new buyer, up 62.2% over four months to 1,186 tons.
Unit: MT · Source: VPSA preliminary statistics
China jumped 200.6% MoM in April — but its 4-month total of 961 tons still trails 2025 by 36.4%, suggesting opportunistic rather than committed buying. Europe reached 736 tons (+11.9% MoM) and Africa 435 tons (+21.2% MoM), both pointing to broadening demand beyond the traditional Asian core.
India Destocking Drags Volumes Down — Europe Picks Up the Slack
Star Anise
4 Months 2026 Cumulative
Star anise is the one commodity where Vietnam is running below 2025 pace. Four-month exports of 4,330 tons are down 27.0% YoY, with revenue dropping 21.8%. The root cause is India — which cut purchases by 39.1%, sliding to just 2,785 tons as it works through elevated stockpiles from last year's over-buying.
But April flashed a recovery signal: monthly volume rose 13.8% MoM to 1,370 tons (US$5.4M), with India itself up 31.6% vs March. The destocking cycle is likely in its final stages. More importantly, Europe is filling the gap — EU volumes jumped 41.2% over four months, led by the Netherlands (+464.3% YoY) and Germany (+128.6% YoY).
Netherlands +464.3% YoY, Germany +128.6% YoY — EU premium quality demand driven by pesticide/PAH compliance requirements
The Big Picture: Why the Market Is Turning Bullish
Four structural forces — not temporary noise — are building a bullish case for Vietnamese spices through 2026 and into 2027.
- El Niño 2026 — the strongest since 2015–2016 — is expected to cut global pepper supply by 15–20% in the 2026–2027 crop year. Vietnam's Central Highlands, Indonesia, and India are all in the drought zone.
- Global inventories are at multi-year lows: Indonesia holds just 13,000 MT in stock, and Indian production fell 32% in 2025. Supply cannot recover quickly.
- US tariff reversal: the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs on Feb 20, 2026 — US importers are receiving duty refunds worth US$133–175B, making Vietnamese pepper cheaper to land.
- Vietnam = world's #1 supplier, holding over 40% of global pepper output. No alternative origin can fill the gap at scale.
4 Forces Every Buyer & Seller Should Track Right Now
Gulf nations produce 44% of global sulfur — supply disruption flows directly into DAP/MAP fertiliser costs, raising per-kg pepper production costs and incentivising farmers to withhold supply
US Tariff Reversal
The IEEPA tariffs on Vietnamese goods were ruled unconstitutional in February 2026. US importers are getting refunds — potentially the largest in US history — which directly reduces the landed cost of Vietnamese pepper and spices and is driving a new wave of forward orders.
Middle East Freight Disruption
Conflict in the region has shut down key shipping lanes, including the Strait of Hormuz. Freight costs have risen 3–4× on some routes. Port congestion at Jebel Ali, Bahrain, and Oman is severe. The Middle East represents ~15% of Vietnam's pepper revenue.
Farmers Holding Stock
In Gia Lai — Vietnam's pepper heartland — farmers are sitting on inventory rather than selling, anticipating higher prices ahead. Labour shortages add pressure. The result: tighter spot supply, stronger price floor, and a market that rewards early buyers who lock in supply.
Rising Input Costs
Gulf nations produce 44% of global sulfur, a key input for DAP and MAP fertilisers. With the Middle East in crisis, sulfur supply is tightening. DAP prices hit $851/tonne and urea $674/tonne in March 2026 — costs that flow directly into every kg of pepper produced.
The bottom line: farmers earn less but spend more to produce each kilogram, which means they have a strong incentive to hold pepper off the market until prices rise. That behaviour tightens physical supply — exactly when global inventories are already historically low.